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August is not short off-season, manufacturers optimistic about the period and earnings upward elasticity dealers

Author : www.cumminsdongfeng.com Date : 2016-9-17 9:47:30
   August is not short off-season, manufacturers optimistic about the period and earnings upward elasticity dealers
  
  China Merchants Securities (Hong Kong) - Auto parts industry: August off-season is not short, optimistic upward cycle for the manufacturer and dealer profit elasticity [] Industry Research
  
  www.cumminsdongfeng.com  Source: Network - Auto Parts
  
  [Research Report Abstract
  
  August sales rose 24.2%. SUV segment models and 1.6 liters and below, respectively, benefited from consumer preferences and tax incentives to stimulate, to become the growth engine for passenger cars. Commercial vehicle market continues to pick up, benefiting from the low base year and class logistics truck driven by strong demand.
  
  September industry will enter the traditional peak season, the market is still expected to maintain a high degree of prosperity. Forecast sales in September grew 15-16%, Zi Seasons base year high, is expected to grow by 6-8%. Increase annual industry sales growth forecast to 10% (previously 7-8%), initially it expected 2017 sales growth of 5%
  
  Recent external market instability or affect Hong Kong stocks, the proposed bargain hunting up product cycles, 2016--17 annual growth of high uncertainty car companies Geely and Brilliance China. Giving due attention to the low valuation of Great Wall Motor, future earnings growth greater elasticity and harmony-car dealers are car
  
  August car sales is not short off-season, in September the industry remains high degree of prosperity
  
  According to the Automobile Association data, in August car sales rose 24.2% to 2.07 million (up 23% in July), from January to August total sales up 11.4% to $ 16.755 million. 1) Passenger: August passenger cars up 26.3%. SUV sustained high growth and lead, in August sales rose 43.9% to 654,000, accounting for 36.4% of passenger car sales. Displacement of 1.6 liters and below grew 40.7%, accounting for 72% of passenger car sales; 2) commercial vehicles: continued to pick up in August sales rose 12.0% to 276,000, due to the low base year and strong growth in demand for logistics trucks, heavy truck and medium truck sales strong increase of 44.2% and 23%.
  
  Investment Strategy: Recommended product cycle upward elasticity and profitability of the company's dealers
  
  Discussion about the view for reference:
  
  1) car manufacturers. Product cycles continue to be optimistic upward Geely Automobile (175 HK, BUY) and Brilliance China (1114 HK, BUY). a) Geely Automobile is the industry's preferred shares. Imperial will launch in late September and the end of GL publish CMA platform will become the new share price catalyst; b) Recommended BMW Brilliance China optimistic about the reason is the product line continues to recover from this year to next year, the second half of this year is a buying opportunity; c) the market for SUV leading Great Wall Motor (2333 HK, bUY) is facing competition in the market concerns over-valuation of the company was significantly lower than the industry average and the company's history, the presence of up repair space.
  
  2) automobile dealers. Car dealers face recovery opportunities, the traditional car dealer currently at the bottom of the cycle, there is room for a rebound of future performance. With the improvement in car sales, car manufacturers dealer pressure to slow down. Although the first half of the car dealer industry performance is uneven, but overall new vehicle sales and after-sales gross margin trend for the better, highlight the value of investment dealers Follow Zhengtong Auto (1728 HK, BUY) and Harmony Cars (3836 HK, buy into).
  
  3) new energy automotive industry chain. Expected inventory cheat up policy after the landing, the new energy automotive industry visibility increased, positive whole new energy automotive industry chain, including vehicle leading BYD (1211 HK, Not Rated), the new energy automotive battery manufacturers transition day to power ( 819 HK, not rated) and AMD power (951 HK, not rated), charging equipment suppliers Titans energy (2188 HK, not rated), high-end electric car maker harmony Cars (3836 HK, bUY).
  
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